The Stock Trading Plan (continued)
So, in summary, this is Peters Trading Plan...
To enter a trade on a Trend Reversal, he needs a Trendline break, a Moving Average crossover, and a swing higher or lower to get set in an uptrend, and a trendline break, a Moving Average crossover and a
lower swing low and lower swing high to enter a downtrend.
To enter a Trend Continuation Trade, he needs a strongly trending market with reactions to the main trend of less than 4 days. He enters with the main trend as the reactions come to an end and places his stop loss orders just past the swing pivot extreme in case the trend fails to continue.
"Now we have looked at my rules for entering trades, lets put them to work on a Stock," he said to Paul.
Turning to his computer screen, Peter opened a chart of IGT and scrolled back to 2001 - about half way through the bear market. Charts available at StockTradingReview.com
"We know that at this point in time, the weekly and monthly trend in this Stock was down, so we are looking for a valid entry with the trend at the end of a larger degree reaction - a trend continuation trade.
"I have removed all but two moving averages for clarity - these are 7 and 13 periods.
"You can see that the Stock made a low on August 8th, then rallied for 14 trading days including the inside day after the day of the high.
"It then fell sharply, breaking a swing low. Two inside days then one day up followed, then another inside day, followed by a day that broke the low of the inside day but closed slightly higher.
"The moving averages were coming very close together, therefore the third filter I use to enter was nearly in place, as we had already had the trendline break and lower top.
"The Stock broke down the next day, and at the close, the moving averages had crossed - I sold $20,000 worth of IGT short at the close and it fell sharply for 5 days before recovering.
"It had a two day rally, then a day down, so I moved my stop loss order to above the swing high this day down formed and was taken out of the trade three days later after price rallied.
"My entry was at $13.18, my exit was at $10.70, giving me a net profit after Brokerage of $4,605 for a 13 day trade.
Paul could see the set-up quite easily now once it was shown to him in an example.
Peter continued, "Lets have a look at another example." Peter opened a chart of MER and scrolled back to one of his trades from May 2002. Charts available at StockTradingReview.com
"This trade was also when the bear market was well underway and MER was in a strong downtrend on the weekly and monthly chart.
Looking at the daily chart, Peter said, "This Stock made a low, then rallied for 10 days. It then made a lower swing low and then rallied 2 days - the lower swing low is Filter one.
"It touched my short term trendline 4 times as it rallied before breaking down - that is Filter two.
"It then fell two days, had a one day rally, then gave a sell signal as it took out the low of that day.
"This trade didn't result in the same quick profit as the one in IGT, but it was very satisfying all the same. My entry was at $40.55 and my exit was at $33.20 as it broke upwards through my stop loss order above a swing high.
"This Stock gave me several more good profits as the downtrend continued. The set-up is always the same.
"A short term Trendline break, a Moving average crossover, a lower low and lower top in a downtrend.
"Let's have a look at an uptrend so you get the idea of what it looks like in a rally." Peter opened a chart of MSFT from Mid 2003, when the weekly and monthly trend had turned upwards. Charts available at StockTradingReview.com
"You can see here that MSFT made a high in early July and then sold off for nearly over 5 weeks.
"Then the moving averages crossed and the short term downtrend line was broken convincingly by a large rally off multiple lows at around $25.50. This set up a 5 day rally, then the Stock fell one day before recovering at the close to be up on the day.
"The buy signal was generated at the close, as this met all of the conditions. The Stock rallied over 20% during the next 5 weeks - that was very pleasant to watch."
Paul could see the simplicity of Peter's trading methods and was keen to go out and apply them in the Stock market.
Peter cautioned him however, "Remember Paul, not all trades are this easy and turn out as well, but by trading these types of trends on the daily chart, when the weekly trend is also in the same direction, we have a high probability of a profitable outcome in a large percentage of cases.
"Trying to guess tops and bottoms is a dangerous practice. It is a high risk trading strategy that rarely produces consistent profits.
"It can be done using time, price and pattern to help us, as I did at the low in the S&P 500 the other day, but the easy trades are when we take a piece out of the middle of each with-the-trend range, and leave the tops and bottoms for others until our understanding improves.
"Before you trade the market with actual money, I want you to paper trade for 3 months, or until you are profitable 70% of the time.
"Once you are profitable with your paper trading, only then are you to risk your money in the market - is that understood?"
Yes Paul replied.
Peter continued, "Stay well within your comfort zone, preserve your capital and build your account over time. Your success should then be assured.
"The rules are there for you to learn and apply, but your greatest enemies are your own fear and greed.
"These two will rob your account if you don't gain control over them. You must take every trade your system gives you, follow your rules exactly, and cling to your trading plan like a shipwrecked sailor does to a life raft.
"Imagine that your life depends on you following your trading plan perfectly...because it does.
"At least the life you wish for yourself and your loved ones does."
Paul agreed to study hard and to try to overcome his emotions of fear and greed. He knew it wouldn't be easy, but he was going to do whatever it took to succeed as a trader.
With that, the lesson was over for that week.
Paul left Peter's office feeling like he had just been handed the keys to the Bank vault and knew his trading would never be the same again.
When he arrived home, he went straight to Incrediblecharts.com and studied his watchlist. He picked out some Stocks that looked promising and started to paper trade them.
He couldn't wait for his next meeting with Peter - he was again filled with hope and gratitude for the time Peter was spending with him, and he vowed that once he was a profitable trader, he would help others succeed in the market.
His new trading life was about to begin...
To Your Trading Success,
Tony Spann and the Team
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Written by: Tony Spann
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